What if Gunpowder weapons in China had gone differently?

Formulas for the incendiary powder spread from Tang alchemists to the battlefield.

If it had gone differently: War stays a matter of walls, horses and bows; castles and cavalry keep their thousand-year dominance.

1. 1453The fall of Constantinople, The Mediterranean spice routes stay open and cheap; no one in Iberia is desperate enough to gamble on the open ocean.
2. 1600The chartered East India companies, European trade with Asia stays a matter of small merchant convoys; no company-states, no gunboat empires.
3. 1618The Thirty Years' War, Central Europe is spared its worst depopulation; the Holy Roman patchwork holds together longer.